Bitcoin Holds Above $63,000, Analyst Says True Reversal May Still Take Several Months

BlockBeats News, June 8th, Bitcoin remained above $63,000 on Monday, continuing a 4% increase from Sunday. This rebound is related to Strategy's CEO Michael Saylor once again signaling additional purchases, which the market widely views as a significant positive development.

Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around the key 200-week moving average, a level historically considered a crucial support area for trend reversals. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, stated that the current market sentiment index has dropped to 8, similar to the mid-2022 situation when the downward momentum weakened, but a true trend reversal did not occur until several months later.

Regarding altcoins, Audiera's BEAT token surged by 78% in the past 24 hours, while Siren (SIREN) rose by 33%. Both are Web3 AI projects on the BNB Chain, but the specific catalysts for the increases remain unclear.

Derivatives data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased from a historical high of 901,000 BTC four days ago to 716,000 BTC, indicating that last week's sharp drop was mainly driven by long liquidations rather than significant short selling. Ethereum's open interest also dropped from 15.98 million ETH to 14.58 million ETH.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) saw a price decline while open interest increased simultaneously, with a growth of over 13% in the past 24 hours, reaching 1.64 million BCH, the highest level since July 2023. The price dropped by 8.3% during the same period, indicating that bearish sentiment in the market is intensifying, potentially facing further downside risks.

In terms of volatility, the 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV) has dropped from near 59% last Friday to 50%, indicating some easing of market panic; Ethereum's implied volatility has also decreased from 75% to 69%.

In the Deribit options market, the five most active contracts traded in the last 24 hours were all call options, including the BTC call option with a strike price of $170,000 expiring on December 25th of this year, reflecting that some investors are still betting on a significant Bitcoin rally before the end of the year.

However, the Gamma distribution of market makers near $60,000 could still amplify price fluctuations, becoming a significant risk factor for the market.

Additionally, Zcash (ZEC) has bounced back by 45% from last week's low point after developers proposed a fix for the privacy pool front-running vulnerability. On the other hand, over the weekend, as Ethereum briefly dropped below $1,600, USDT's market cap briefly surpassed that of ETH, but with ETH's rebound, their rankings have returned to normal. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is still around $1.2 trillion, significantly higher than other cryptocurrencies.