1 Smart Money Buy on "Will Russia and Ukraine Reach a Ceasefire Agreement by June 30, 2026"
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has placed a $4,700 bet on "Whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026," with an average buy-in probability of 8.9%. The current probability of "Yes" is 7.0%.
Ferwhere has also bet $4,700 and is most heavily invested in the Russia (Putin) related outcome, with a net profit of $172,000. Ferwhere has placed a total of 2 settled trades in this outcome with a win rate of 1/2 (50%), including 1 trade with a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95.
On the 4th, the Associated Press reported that after Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin, Trump responded positively in Washington, stating that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy would be "very good" and that "they should get it done." He also mentioned that both sides need to compromise.
Today, the Associated Press reported that UK Prime Minister Stalmer hosted Zelenskyy in London, along with the French President and the German Chancellor, for a four-way talk. The discussions emphasized Ukraine's urgent need to enhance its rebound capability with air defense systems, anti-aircraft interceptors, and long-range strike capabilities, while also reintroducing the ceasefire back into the negotiation framework. The leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Ukraine, following the meeting, called on Putin to accept an "immediate, comprehensive ceasefire" and suggested that the current contact line should be the starting point for any negotiations.
Note: Based on their historical trading profile, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain time.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549.
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