The probability of "Did Israel close its airspace before June 9?" being "Yes" has increased from 46.7% to 72.4%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 5 minutes, the probability of "Did Israel close its airspace before June 9?" has increased from 46.7% to 72.4%, with a total buy side volume of $1200.

On June 7, after Israel's airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, Iran launched multiple missile strikes at Israel; the IRGC stated that the targets included the Ramat David Airbase near Nazareth, while Israeli media mentioned missiles targeting the north of Israel, the Sharon area, and Samaria. Iran subsequently closed its western airspace in response to possible Israeli retaliation.

On the 8th, the Associated Press reported that Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran in the early morning; Iran then closed the airspace around the Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran following the Israeli airstrikes. Ben Gurion Airport in Israel also temporarily suspended flights. However, Israeli media noted that even if Iranian missiles hit the central part of Israel, it does not necessarily mean that Ben Gurion Airport will be closed for an extended period.

Of greater significance is Trump's intervention. Axios reported that Trump was preparing to call Netanyahu after the Iranian missile attack to request Israel not to retaliate; U.S. officials stated that Trump, in the call, asked Netanyahu to hold off because the U.S. was "close to a good deal with Iran." However, Israel still conducted airstrikes against Iran in the early hours of the 8th, indicating that U.S. efforts to contain escalation were limited in effect.
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