「Stock Market Oracle」 Serenity Discusses Personal Investment Framework: Guessing What the Market Doesn't Know Yet, Piecing Together High-Conviction Theories

BlockBeats News, June 7th - The "Stock God" Serenity responded to how beginners should learn about investing, and systematically explained his own investment framework. Serenity admitted that his personal style is a bit different, essentially based on making independent judgments using information not yet grasped by the market, combined with accumulated life experience. "A lot of it is just speculating on those unstructured relationships and then waiting to see if you're right. This kind of ability is hard to teach through courses; it's more about accumulating life skills and then applying them to the market."

Serenity retrospectively analyzed this method through two classic cases. One of them is Raspberry Pi: While the market generally viewed RPI as an educational toy, he observed a rise in OpenClaw (an open-source AI agent framework). Seeing friends around him purchasing a large number of Raspberry Pis and Mac Minis to deploy AI applications, along with a surge of AI scripting video tutorials online, he concluded that AI would become the ideal growth engine for RPI. He privately modeled a revenue growth rate of about 55%, and the final financial report revealed 58%, far exceeding the market's expected 14%. "The media at the time all said it was a meme stock because you couldn't see the revenue growth brought by AI through public channels."

The second case is AXT: He was ridiculed by the crowd when he bought it at around $12. The grand language model illusion even asserted that ultra-large-scale cloud vendors and governments should have discovered and fixed the indium phosphide substrate vulnerability long ago, and analysts used a steady-state TAM estimate to conclude that AXT was overvalued. "But AXT controls about 40% of the InP supply chain. Without it, the whole chain would be broken. What you need to speculate on is - if it becomes a bottleneck like NAND, what market cap could it reach based on its control, and at what price would buyers view it." Goldman Sachs' current research conclusions and the financial reports of substrate epitaxy companies both confirmed AXT's analysis after he released it.

Serenity also acknowledged that not all investments need to be so complex, stating, "Many stocks are good enough to use standard methods." For example, if AAOI's H1 2027 annualized revenue guidance reaches $471 million, and the current market capitalization is only $12 billion, it may be undervalued. Samsung Electronics, on the other hand, is simpler. Look at the market's modeling of operating profit for 2027 and 2028 to judge if the current valuation is reasonable. For the harder-to-value JBL, with its 1.6T LRO (Linear Receive Optics) having no clear sales data, "You can only guess how widespread it is and then deduce the impact on the current market value." Serenity concluded that what he does is essentially piecing together high-confidence inferences from unrelated fragments, "Of course, I could be wrong at any time."