Analyst Questions SpaceX's $1.75 Trillion Valuation: Revenue Would Need to Grow Nearly 60x in the Next Decade, Unprecedented

BlockBeats News, June 6th, Fortune magazine cited David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, as saying that to support a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, SpaceX will need to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, a nearly 60-fold increase from $18.7 billion in 2025, equivalent to maintaining a roughly 50% annual revenue growth rate over the next decade.

According to SpaceX's previous IPO filing, the company's revenue in 2025 was $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Based on a discounted cash flow model, Trainer calculated that if investors expect to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, SpaceX must achieve the aforementioned growth target.

The analysis pointed out that if SpaceX reaches a revenue scale of $1.1 trillion, its revenue will account for about 2.4% of the U.S. GDP in 2035, surpassing the entire U.S. utility industry in economic size and approaching three-quarters of the U.S. transportation industry.

Trainer stated that although the AI market space is vast, many competitors including Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and others are competing for market share. Achieving such a growth scale lacks historical precedent for SpaceX. He believes that the current SpaceX IPO could not only be the largest in history but also potentially the most expensive in terms of valuation.