BlockBeats News, June 5th. Today, the first non-farm payroll data of the "Powell era" was released, far exceeding expectations. Analysts and traders seem to have reached a consensus on a rate hike:
Leading analyst and "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos immediately stated that the non-farm payroll report would not entirely resolve the debate over the Fed's rate hike magnitude, but a short-term rate cut is now basically impossible.
CME's "FedWatch" data has validated this view: by December this year, the probability of a Fed rate hike has risen to 67.7%, with the only disagreement being the magnitude of the hike.
In addition, investment banks have also made judgments: BNP Paribas predicts that the Fed will begin a series of three consecutive rate hikes starting in December 2026.
After the data was released, the only camp still insisting on a rate cut is the Trump administration. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated after the data release that US employment data absolutely does not foreshadow inflation, the Fed should not hike rates, and there is room for a cut. The Fed has always been behind the curve, and there is still ample room for a rate cut.
