Federal Reserve Study: Dilemma Weakening Under Oil Price Shock, Can Prioritize Inflation Control

BlockBeats News, June 5th, the latest research from the Boston Fed pointed out that with the improvement in energy efficiency and the growth in domestic crude oil production, the U.S. economy's sensitivity to oil price increases has significantly decreased. Unlike the oil crisis of the 1970s, the current oil price increase no longer massively impacts the job market. The additional jobs created by the oil and gas industry's expansion can partially offset the pressure on other industries. Therefore, the possibility of high oil prices leading to a "stagflation" situation of high inflation and high unemployment has noticeably decreased.

However, the report also warned that the cushioning effect of oil price shocks on employment has weakened, implying that the inflationary pressure from rising energy prices may be more enduring. The Fed does not need to overly worry about energy price hikes leading to an economic downturn, but should focus more on containing inflation. The current market consensus is that the Fed's June meeting will keep rates unchanged, but some officials have begun discussing the possibility of raising rates later this year.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley believes that the current oil price surge is more of a short-term supply disruption and is not sufficient to be a key factor driving rate hikes. The institution expects the U.S. interest rate to remain unchanged for the whole year and is likely to start a rate-cutting cycle in 2027. However, as geopolitical conflicts push up energy prices, the market's view on the Fed's policy path has significantly shifted. Fed officials have recently been sending frequent hawkish signals, emphasizing that if inflation remains persistently above the target level, further policy tightening is not ruled out.