1 smart money buys "Will the US Strike Cuba by December 31, 2026?"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has placed a $1,100 bet on "Will the U.S. strike Cuba by December 31, 2026?", with an average buying probability of 53.0%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 45.0%.

Trader 0x29d33707 has bet $1,100, with the top-performing category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $90,500. Out of 104 settled trades in this category, the trader has a win rate of 78/104 (75%), with 41 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), the median historical investment amount is $939.

On June 4th, AP reported that the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Cuban president and his wife. When asked if the U.S. aimed to hasten the collapse of the Cuban regime, Trump stated that the U.S. simply hoped Cuba would become a well-governed country, mentioning that Cuba has already "to some extent collapsed," and the U.S. would address the Cuba issue after completing actions regarding Iran.

Militarily, during Trump's second term, U.S. military actions significantly expanded, including strikes on suspected drug ships in the Caribbean and East Pacific; Axios noted recent military build-up near Cuba, with Trump pushing for political change in Cuba, but he leans more towards a peaceful transition. CNN also reported on the same day that the U.S. has deployed an aircraft carrier to the region, and Secretary of State Rubio has repeatedly stated that Cuba poses a threat to the U.S., but he has also expressed openness to negotiation solutions that could lead Cuba towards democracy, prosperity, freedom, and normalization.

Disclaimer: Based on their trading history, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior post-position opening.

Account:
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed.