Preview: The first non-farm payroll of the "Wash Era" will be released tonight at 8:30 PM

BlockBeats News, June 5th: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the May nonfarm payroll data tonight at 20:30 ET. The market generally expects the US to have added about 85,000 nonfarm jobs in May, significantly lower than the average of about 150,000 in the previous two months; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.

Several institutions have a more conservative outlook on this nonfarm data. Goldman Sachs expects only 60,000 new jobs in May, stating that the high-frequency employment indicators it tracks have weakened. EY expects an additional 50,000 jobs and believes there is slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Vanguard's Chief Economist, Adam Schickling, expects only a 20,000 increase in jobs, suggesting that unseasonably warm and dry weather at the beginning of the year boosted employment data from January to April, and this effect may partially reverse in May.

From a monetary policy perspective, if the nonfarm data broadly meets expectations, the Fed will most likely stand pat at the June 16-17 meeting. EY's Chief Economist, Gregory Daco, said that with a stable labor market and persistently high inflation, there may be an increased possibility of the Fed issuing a more hawkish forward guidance at the next meeting. Policymakers may emphasize that if inflation proves more sticky, rate hikes remain on the table.