Analysis: Over Half of Bitcoin Holdings in Unrealized Loss, Historical Bear Market Bottom Indicator Triggered Again

BlockBeats News, June 4th, Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin briefly dropped to $61,300, the number of unrealized BTC reached around 10.5 million, surpassing for the first time the 9.8 million BTC in a profitable state, accounting for over half of the circulating supply. This is the first time in this cycle that the number of loss-making chips has exceeded the number of profit-making chips.

Historical data shows that this metric has only appeared in the past during deep bear market phases and has often corresponded to key market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, with durations ranging from one month to a year.

At the same time, the Bitcoin price touched the 200-week moving average at around $61,300, a key long-term support level in previous bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC drops below the $60,000 round number mark, the next significant support level will be around the realized price near $54,000, a level that Bitcoin has breached in previous major bear markets.