「Stock God」 Serenity's Recent Views: Neocloud Track Most Promising for NBIS Confidence, Focus on Europe's Top Three Silicon Photonics Leaders

BlockBeats News, June 4th, "Stock God" Serenity's recent public opinions and calls are as follows:

NBIS (Nebius)

Serenity defines Nebius as the "Neocloud track's most confident choice," believing it is the "purest AI infrastructure asymmetric opportunity." By June 2026, NBIS's stock price has risen from about $84 last year to $260, with a market cap of $660 billion. He remains bullish on a long-term breakthrough to over $1 trillion. Serenity points out that NBIS ranks first in the Neocloud track, surpassing competitors such as IREN and CRWV. Its core advantages lie in avoiding several major pain points faced by competitors—lack of full-stack execution certainty, no high-yield debt, and the scale revenue certainty brought by large-scale customer contracts. In addition, NBIS is also part of Nvidia's portfolio and Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund Q1 holdings, reflecting top-tier capital consensus.

Google AI Capital Expenditure Upstream Ecosystem (LITE / AVGO / MediaTek / TSM / MU)

Regarding Google's parent company Alphabet's announcement of an $800 billion AI capital expenditure financing (including a $400 billion ATM issuance, $300 billion in stocks, and a $100 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway), Serenity believes this will benefit the upstream ecosystem supply chain, specifically including companies like Lumentum (LITE), Broadcom (AVGO), MediaTek, TSMC, and Micron (MU). However, he also notes that for Google shareholders, such massive capital expenditure is not entirely supported by free cash flow, and the impact may not necessarily be positive. This assessment continues its narrative logic of focusing on the "key bottleneck" in AI infrastructure.

AAOI

Serenity lists AAOI as his favorite American photonics target, believing that if investors are looking for the "next Sandisk," AAOI may be the relevant target. He predicts that the revenue acceleration inflection point for photonics-related companies will occur in the first half of 2027 into the second half of the year. The market typically prices in future growth about 8 months in advance. Currently (the second half of 2026) is still slightly ahead of the industry's capacity construction phase. The key is to wait for the timing and endure the volatility during the period. AAOI has recently drawn market attention to the possibility of signing a long-term agreement with Nvidia or AMD, which would be a key signal to validate its "Sandisk" potential.

SIVE (Sivers Semiconductors)

SIVE, a key holding in Serenity, saw several significant positive developments in June 2026. Firstly, SIVE announced a strategic partnership with GlobalFoundries (GF), where its laser array will be integrated into GF's silicon photonics platform and SCALE optical engine reference designs, making Sivers Laser the default light source in GF's silicon photonics ecosystem, with the aim of capturing a $250 billion pluggable optics market by 2030. This collaboration was labeled by Serenity as the "most decisive event in history." Additionally, Ayar Labs officially joined the NVIDIA NVLink Fusion ecosystem, with SIVE as Ayar Labs' public laser partner, providing high-precision InP laser arrays, thereby entering NVIDIA's optical infrastructure supply chain. Serenity noted that SIVE's lasers have become the industry standard lasers for CPOs, pluggable modules, and silicon photonics, directly benefiting AI chip giants using relevant foundries (NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MRVL, etc.).

XFAB

Serenity issued a buy call on XFAB, citing a "severe misalignment between valuation and assets." XFAB has a market capitalization of around $1.7 billion, while POET has a market cap of around $2.4 billion, but XFAB possesses core assets far surpassing its market value: it is one of the few global foundries receiving funding from both the EU CHIPS Act and the U.S. CHIPS Act for SiC/GaN/MEMS/silicon photonics, with the current valuation even below reset book value. Serenity listed its differentiation advantages: NVIDIA and Nokia are evaluating its pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry line, with expected ramp-up production from 2027 to 2028; the company leads the expansion of the European photonics supply chain, deepening cooperation with core institutions such as IMEC, CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart Photonics; and its customers include Nanosil Semiconductor, Power Integrations, and Lite-On. Serenity specifically quoted the U.S. Department of Commerce's official qualification – "XFAB is the only high-capacity silicon carbide foundry in the U.S.," believing it possesses rare strategic value under trade barriers and supply chain localization trends.

European Silicon Photonics Big Three (Soitec / Siltronic / XFAB)

Regarding the EU Chips Act 2.0 proposal, Serenity's analysis interpreted that the proposal will formally include photonics in the EU semiconductor strategic framework, constituting a thematic positive for the photonics industry. The policy focuses on CPOs and interconnect technology for AI data centers, the application of silicon photonics in high-bandwidth data center interconnects, and manufacturing technologies such as co-packaging of photonics integrated circuits and heterogeneous integration, directly benefiting SIVE and XFAB. Serenity particularly highlighted the three pillars of the European silicon photonics value chain: Soitec and Siltronic as the core European companies in the SOI wafer field were directly mentioned in the policy impact analysis, while XFAB was listed as part of the current funding framework, further confirming its leading position in the European silicon photonics value chain. He predicted that as the policy framework takes shape, relevant targets may gradually release specific information in the next 3 to 15 months.