MicroStrategy Announces Coin Sale, Polymarket Clarifies Additional Rules Leading to Market Probability Zero

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a proposal with a win rate of 99.9% mentioned in yesterday's news flash by this channel initiated a "No" settlement on the "MicroStrategy will sell BTC before June" market. That evening, MicroStrategy revealed in an SEC 8-K filing that it had sold 32 BTC a few days prior.

The release of this filing caused the probability of "Yes" in the market to briefly rise to 85%: market rules stipulate that if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before 11:59 PM ET on May 31, the market will settle as "Yes."

However, after several smart money bets on "No," the probability gradually dropped to around 50%: since the relevant filing was made public on June 1, later than the market deadline of May 31, the "No" side argued that the filing did not meet the settlement conditions for "Yes."

Around 1 PM ET on June 1, Polymarket issued additional clarification on the market, stating that "there was no official MSTR information, on-chain data, or credible reports confirming Strategy's BTC sale during the market time," leading to a sharp drop in the "Yes" probability, now at 0.9%.

Going forward, we will synchronize more updates on high win-rate proposal addresses' movements, settlement disputes, and rule changes to member-exclusive content, including settlement/dispute proposal initiation, initiating address profits, sector win rates, and other analytical information.
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