Bitunix Analyst: Middle East Shipping-Lane Control and FX Defense Battles Escalate in Tandem

BlockBeats News, June 2nd.The focal point has shifted from straightforward US-Iran negotiations to a deeper struggle for strategic control. The US is reportedly pressing Oman—long a neutral broker—to take a clear stance between Washington and Tehran, even asking it to sever diplomatic ties with Iran. Iran has, in turn, again signaled the possibility of blockading both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Although Trump has said a deal may be reached within a week, the US and Iranian descriptions of what such a deal would contain remain materially different—meaning regional risk has not been resolved.

Another important thread is emerging from Japan. Even after deploying a record-setting ¥11.73 trillion in single-month FX intervention, the yen has once again approached the 160 line, and Japan's finance minister has reiterated that further intervention can be deployed at any time. The implication: major economies are now simultaneously contending with capital outflow pressure and FX stability—and the persistent strength of dollar-denominated assets continues to draw global capital despite repeated official countermeasures.

Meanwhile, news that OPEC+ may increase production by 188,000 barrels per day, Alphabet's plans for an $80 billion bond raise, and NVIDIA's anticipated new AI chip launch later this year together signal that energy supply, capital markets, and AI investment cycles are all advancing in parallel. Markets have now entered a phase in which three threads—geopolitics, energy supply, and tech capex—are interlacing.

In crypto, investors are watching the trajectory of global cost of capital and risk appetite. Should Hormuz risk continue to escalate, energy prices and inflation expectations could move higher again; conversely, a US-Iran breakthrough would meaningfully improve global risk sentiment. In the near term, crypto remains tied to global liquidity and geopolitical risk repricing.