Strategy Bitcoin Sale Timing Triggers Polymarket Settlement Dispute, Related Market Trading Volume Exceeds $75 million

BlockBeats News, June 2nd, Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC last week, triggering a settlement dispute in Polymarket, a prediction market with over $75 million in trading volume. The market was: Will Strategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31st? Traders could choose "Yes" or "No." Strategy disclosed in a filing to the SEC on Monday that the company sold 32 BTC between May 26th and May 31st, raising about $2.5 million to support allocations related to its preferred stock issuance. This is the first time Strategy has disclosed a Bitcoin sale since December 2022.

Traders supporting the "Yes" settlement believe the SEC filing clearly shows the sale occurred before the deadline; while traders supporting the "No" settlement argue that the relevant information was not made public before the market closed, hence it should settle as "No." This market has settled as "No" twice before, with two challenges, and is currently in the final review stage. Polymarket later added a note to the page stating that "confirmations obtained outside the market timeframe do not meet the criteria," seemingly leaning towards settling in favor of the "No" side. Such disputes have been a recurring challenge for prediction market platforms, determining whether the judgment standard for outcomes should be the time of the event or the time when evidence of the event became public.

According to the Polymarket page, the probability of the event "Will Strategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31st" settling as "Yes" has dropped to 1%.