According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, there is a dispute in the market for "Will Strategy sell BTC before May 31?" Earlier today, the market was leaning towards "No" settlement; however, after Strategy disclosed selling 32 bitcoins last week, the market swiftly reversed, with the probability of "Yes" briefly spiking to 85% and now retracing to 51%. The two sides are at odds, and the trading volume of this sub-market has exceeded $20 million.
The market rules stipulate that if Strategy sells any of its bitcoins before the specified time, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." The primary sources of information for this market will be data from MSTR and on-chain data, with consensus opinions from trusted reports also considered.
The "Yes" camp believes the outcome is clear, while the "No" camp mostly argues that the sale announcement was made after May 31 and should not be considered.
Currently, Polymarket has added additional clarification to this market: We have noted the controversy in this market. If a clarification statement is needed, it will be released on June 1 at 1:00 PM EDT (1:00 AM Beijing Time). If no statement is released by then, it signifies that the Polymarket team will not provide any clarification. The order book will be settled at 1:00 PM EDT regardless of whether a clarification statement has been issued.
