2 savvy investors put in a total of $38,100 to bet on the prediction "The US and Iran will reach a nuclear agreement by June 30."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, two savvy investors have placed a total of $38.1k on "Will the U.S. and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by June 30?" with an average buy probability of 47.7%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 38.5%.

mr.ozi has invested $33.9k, with the top relevant market category being the Middle East, with a net profit of $114k. Out of 269 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 190/269 (71%), with 58 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $2.4k, making this current investment 13.9 times that median amount.
GollumGekko has invested $4.2k, with the top relevant market category being Politics, with a net profit of $91.3k. Out of 1846 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 1330/1846 (72%), with 153 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351-$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $511.

On May 30th, Reuters reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated that Trump is patient, seeking a "good deal" to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons. However, if the negotiations fail, the U.S. is prepared to resume strikes against Iran. On the same day, The Guardian analysis suggested that the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal to end hostilities, with the most immediate outcome potentially being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This signals Trump's shift from the initial maximalist goals to a more transactional nuclear and shipping arrangement.

On the 31st, Axios reported that Trump, following a White House Situation Room meeting, requested modifications to the draft agreement negotiated by his envoy with Iran, particularly to strengthen clauses regarding Iranian nuclear materials. This prompted a new round of U.S.-Iran textual exchanges. Also on the 31st, Axios cited a U.S. senior official stating, "There will be an agreement, but it could be a week, less than a week, or longer," highlighting the U.S.' willingness to wait for Trump to receive the terms he demands, hoping for a resolution early this week.

Early today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned that all current external speculations are premature until the negotiations truly conclude. Iran insists that the agreement must safeguard its rights and continues to link discussions on unfreezing assets, sanction relief, and the nuclear matter.

Note: Based on their trading history, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking and stop-losses after opening positions at certain points in time.

Accounts:
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f

Total Investment: $38.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow today, follow @PolyBeatsEN for early insights. Stay connected @PolyBeats_Bot