This Week's Macro Outlook: US-Iran Negotiations Enter Key Window, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Data Incoming

BlockBeats News, June 1st. Regarding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the Strait of Hormuz opening issue, Trump stated that the agreement is close to being reached and demanded that Iran give up its nuclear weapons capability and open the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran denied having approved the final agreement text and emphasized that there are still differences in related arrangements. US Secretary of Defense Hedges warned that if the negotiations fail, the US is prepared to resume military action against Iran. If both the US and Iran can further confirm a ceasefire extension or reach a preliminary agreement next week, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets may face new directional choices.

On the macro level, the US will welcome key economic data for May, such as the post-seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the market will further assess the balance between the US economic slowdown and inflationary pressures, as well as changes in the future interest rate path. The key events to watch are as follows:

Monday

11:00, NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 conference opens, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech.

Tuesday

13:50, 2026 FOMC Voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speak;

20:30, 2026 FOMC Voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak on monetary policy; 22:00, US April JOLTs Job Openings;

Wednesday

20:15, US May ADP Employment Figures; 22:00, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

Thursday

02:00, Federal Reserve releases Beige Book; 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims up to May 30th;

Friday

01:10, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks;

20:30, US May Post-Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, US May Unemployment Rate.

Meanwhile, AI remains a core theme driving the global rise in risk assets. As the corporate earnings season draws to a close, the market will continue to focus on the performance of companies such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Broadcom, etc., to see if the AI investment craze can continue to spread to more industries. After the US stock market ended May at a historic high, the market will face the traditional "June Curse" test. In a midterm election year, June is historically the worst performing month for US stocks, and investors generally expect the market to enter a short-term consolidation phase.