Next Week Macro Outlook: US-Iran Negotiation Enters Key Window, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Data Incoming

BlockBeats News, May 31st: Regarding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump stated that the agreement is close to being reached and demanded that Iran abandon its nuclear weapons capability and open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, on the other hand, denied having approved the final agreement text and emphasized that there are still differences in the related arrangements. US Secretary of Defense Hedges warned that if the negotiations fail, the US is prepared to resume military action against Iran. If the US and Iran can further confirm a ceasefire extension or reach a phased agreement next week, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets may face a new direction.

On the macro front, the US will welcome key economic data next week, including May non-farm payroll figures and the May unemployment rate, adjusted for seasonal variations. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials will speak out, and the market will further assess the balance between the US economic slowdown and inflation pressures, as well as changes in the future interest rate path. The key events to watch are as follows:

Monday 11:00: NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 Conference opens, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech.

Tuesday 13:50: 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speak; 20:30: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak on monetary policy; 22:00: US April JOLTs Job Openings.

Wednesday 20:15: US May ADP Employment Change; 22:00: US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Thursday 02:00: The Fed releases the Beige Book; 20:30: US Initial Jobless Claims up to the week ending May 30th;

Friday 01:10: San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks; 20:30: US May Non-Farm Payrolls and US May Unemployment Rate.

Meanwhile, AI remains a core theme driving the global rise in risk assets. As the corporate earnings season draws to a close, the market will continue to pay attention to the performance of companies such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom to observe whether the AI investment frenzy can continue to spread to more industries. After the US stock market closed May at historic highs, the market will also face the traditional "June Curse" test. In a midterm election year, June is historically the worst-performing month for US stocks, with investors generally expecting the market to enter a short-term consolidation phase.