Analyst: Bitcoin is Near ‘Capitulation,’ Watching for Funds to Flow Back

BlockBeats News, May 29th. According to Greeks.live data, there were a total of 84,000 BTC options expiring on May 29th, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $75,000, and a notional value of $6.2 billion.

In addition, 639,000 ETH options are also expiring today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.81, a maximum pain point of $2200, and a notional value of $12.8 billion.

Analyst Adam from Greeks.live stated that this week, Bitcoin quickly dropped below $75,000, with both BTC and ETH facing large expiries. However, due to the rapid decline, the market did not receive the expected "maximum pain point" support. The already low market sentiment was further dampened. Only 20% of the options are expiring this month, with a significant increase in open interest concentration for June, reaching 40%.

The bulls failed to reclaim a key level before the expiry, with the GEX key price struggling to hold. This week, risk appetite continued to decline, and altcoins and ETH beta were under more pressure. Without new incremental catalysts, post-expiry short-term IV is highly likely to fall. Based on the major options data, the PCR for BTC/ETH is 0.88 and 0.81, which is not extremely bearish. The market did not see large-scale bets on a one-sided crash earlier, more like a slight defensive neutral stance, with little Skew volatility, mainly profit-taking from previous accumulation. Although the IV of major-term options rebounded slightly, the overall IV is still below 35%, almost at an all-time low.

The market's next focus is whether funds can flow back, and whether BTC can reclaim $75,000 and ETH can recapture $2100. The expiry seems more like a "bearish realization" – large expiries happening, but BTC and ETH are both operating below the maximum pain point, indicating that the dominant force this week is not chasing the upside but rather risk aversion and bull backing off, leaving the market bulls very fragile.