2026 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook: Rate Hike Expectations Rise, 37.3% Probability of Cumulative 25 Basis Point Hike

BlockBeats News, May 29th. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have been almost entirely erased, with some even contemplating a potential 75 basis point rate hike. Currently, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady through the end of 2026 is 51.9%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut throughout the year is only 0.5%, while the probabilities of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, 50 basis point rate hike, and 75 basis point rate hike are 37.3%, 9.3%, and 1%, respectively.

Furthermore, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in June is 1.1%.