According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the market "Will Strategy Sell Any Bitcoin Before May 31?" being "Yes" is currently 14%.
The current top holder of the "Yes" position has posted an article outlining 21 reasons for their investment in the "Yes" position. The core argument of this lengthy post is not "Saylor Bearish on Bitcoin," but the belief that Strategy has now included "small-scale BTC selling" in its financial toolkit.
The author suggests that the market is still pricing in the narrative of Saylor's past "never sell" stance, but Strategy's Q1 5 May earnings call and materials have introduced a new model: the ability to sell a small portion of BTC to fund dividends, buy back debt, maintain USD reserves, while simultaneously acquiring more BTC through STRC/MSTR issuance, ultimately remaining a net BTC buyer.
Key arguments include statements from Strategy officials, a cash demand window in May, Strategy openly discussing how "selling BTC can enhance the credit narrative," on-chain indicators (unconfirmed).
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