Preview: U.S. April Core PCE to Be Released Tonight at 8:30 PM, Expected at 3.3%

BlockBeats News, May 28th: The US April PCE data will be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The market generally expects the year-on-year increase in April PCE to rise to 3.8%, higher than the previous value of 3.5%, possibly hitting a nearly three-year high. The core PCE rate is also expected to edge up to 3.3%. With the energy price shock yet to dissipate and service sector inflation remaining sticky, if the data confirms the accelerated spread of inflation, the Fed's return to a hawkish stance will receive further strong support.

Currently, the CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows that although the market expects rates to remain unchanged in June, the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year is significantly increasing. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs believes that it will take some time for inflation to cool down, with the core PCE expected to remain around 3% in 2026, while this year's overall inflation rate will stay below 4%.