4WISE Investment of $89,400 Believes "The U.S. and Iran Will Reach a Permanent Peace Agreement by May 31, 2026"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 savvy investors have placed a total of $89.4k on "Will the U.S. and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?" with an average buy-in probability of 27.3%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 24.5%.

0xc84f7e76 has invested $14.2k, with the most relevant category being Iran, generating a net profit of $141k. Out of 138 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 91/138 (66%), with 12 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $663, making this investment 21.5 times the median.

mr.ozi has invested $23.4k, with the most relevant category being Geopolitics, resulting in a net profit of $154k. Out of 465 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 334/465 (72%), with 99 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $2.8k.

Parz1vaI has invested $27.6k, with the most relevant category being Politics, leading to a net profit of $278k. Out of 2802 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 2048/2802 (73%), with 635 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a cost range ($0.201-$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, and this investment is 203.5 times the median amount.

Dropper has invested $24.2k, with the most relevant category also being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $1.0M. Out of 1163 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 763/1163 (66%), with 258 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $203, making this investment 119.4 times the median amount.

On the 26th, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the recent U.S. strike on missile sites and ships in southern Hormuzgan province was a "serious violation" of the nearly seven-week ceasefire and could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the war. Concurrently, Rubio mentioned that the U.S. and Iran had made progress on a preliminary agreement that could halt hostilities and restore strait navigation, but the final wording might still require "a few days" of negotiation.

ABC News reported today that despite the recent U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, negotiations to end the U.S.-Iran war are continuing in Doha on Tuesday. Two U.S. officials noted that an Iranian delegation was in talks with Qatari mediators, with Trump administration negotiators participating remotely.

An analysis in the Financial Times column highlighted that a key part of the emerging U.S.-Iran deal is Iran permitting toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a phased relaxation of U.S. sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets. Iran may commit to restrictions on its nuclear program, but specific constraints are yet to be determined in future negotiations. For Trump, swiftly reopening the strait may be more pragmatically appealing than continuing the war, although this approach could leave Iran with a significant bargaining chip.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, these traders are not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss strategies after opening positions at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292

Total Investment: $89.4k
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