3 clever investors bet $73,400 on "Will Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal by July?" and the answer was "No."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 clever investors have put in $73.4 thousand on the question "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?" with an average buy probability of 64.5%, and the current probability of "yes" at 46.5%.

0x8e77537e has invested $45.8 thousand, with the top relevant category being US-Iran, earning a net profit of $22.4 thousand in that category. Out of a total of 28 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 28/28 (100%), with 4 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1,700, making this investment 26.9 times the median.
Huludubu has invested $20.8 thousand in the geopolitical category, earning a net profit of $252 thousand. Out of 1,309 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 899/1309 (69%), with 285 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-0.7), the median historical investment amount is $470, making this investment 44.2 times the median.
0x29d33707 has invested $6,900, with the top relevant category being Iran, earning a net profit of $82.1 thousand. Out of 73 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 54/73 (74%), with 30 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501-0.65), the median historical investment amount is $1,500.

The condition for "return to normal" requires IMF PortWatch to announce that the 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" in the Strait of Hormuz reaches or exceeds 60 by June 30.

Xinhua News Agency reported at 06:02 on May 25 that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy stated on May 24 that 33 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after coordinating and obtaining permission, including oil tankers, merchant ships, and container ships, with Iran claiming that its forces ensured the security of these vessels during transit. Public data shows a moving average of around 6.3 from May 11 to 17.

Today, the Associated Press reported that the Royal Navy of the UK has prepared RFA Lyme Bay near Gibraltar to carry sonar drones and mine-clearing equipment, planning to participate in a security operation in the Strait of Hormuz with France and allies. However, the UK has made it clear that this operation will only be launched after hostile actions cease. The commander in charge of managing the mine threat in the UK Navy stated that the first step would be to clear a channel to allow around 700 stranded vessels to exit the bay, followed by clearing the inbound channel, and that clearing the entire strait may take "months or even years."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, the trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; there is evidence of taking profits or stop-losses at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3;
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65;
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed.