1 new account deposited $43,000 on the outcome "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?" with the answer "Yes."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has entered $43,000 on the question "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?" with an average buy-in probability of 41.2%. The current probability for "Yes" is 21.5%.

On the 23rd, Trump stated that a US-Iran peace agreement has been "roughly negotiated," with a potential agreement possibly involving a formal declaration to end the war and allowing two months to further discuss Iran's nuclear plans. The next day, he mentioned he had instructed negotiators to "not rush into a deal," believing time is on the US side.

On the 24th, Axios cited a US senior official reporting that the White House does not expect an immediate US-Iran agreement, as Iran's top leadership approval of the deal may take several days, and discussions on how Iran will hand over highly enriched uranium will still need to continue over a 60-day period; while US officials view both sides as being in a "very advantageous position," they also acknowledge the agreement is not yet final and remains susceptible to sabotage or breakdown.

This morning, Brent crude fell about 5% on Sunday, while spot gold rose over 1% to $4,560.09 per ounce. The key reason is the market starting to bet on a potential US-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Account:
0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e.