2 smart money on whether "Former Cuban leader Raul Castro will be detained by the US before June 30th" bet $9,400 on "No"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, two clever investors have placed a $9,400 bet on "no" regarding "Whether former Cuban leader Raúl Castro will be detained by the US before June 30th?" The average buy probability is 80.1%, while the current "yes" probability is 12.4%.

0x5f176a98 has invested $5,400, with the most relevant category being politics in this market, with a net profit of $75,600. Within this category, out of 63 settled trades, their win rate is 56/63 (89%), with 5 trades having a buy price less than $0.8 and a sell price greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $21,700.
Trading4Fridge has invested $4,000, with the most relevant category being geopolitics, with a net profit of $62,400. Within this category, out of 823 settled trades, their win rate is 485/823 (59%), with 278 trades having a buy price less than $0.8 and a sell price greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $918.

On the 20th, the US Department of Justice released a superseding indictment formally accusing 94-year-old former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, along with 5 other Cuban-related defendants. The US accuses them of involvement in the February 24, 1996, action by the Cuban military to shoot down two unarmed US civilian planes of the "Brothers to the Rescue" group. Raúl faces charges including one count of "conspiracy to murder US nationals," four counts of "murder," and two counts of "destroying aircraft."

On the 22nd, Reuters reported that after the US charged Raúl, thousands of Cubans held a rally in front of the US Embassy in Havana in support of Raúl. Cuban President Díaz-Canel, Prime Minister Marrero, as well as Raúl's daughter, son, and grandson acting as his personal security detail, attended. His family stated that Raúl is "doing well, very calm, like an old guerrilla."

Today, the official Cuban newspaper published an article stating that Cuba "has not threatened any neighboring country with invasion, blockade, or overthrow of its government" and described the recent US military and political pressure on Cuba as a threat from the north.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of events; there is a behavior of taking profit or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e;
0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919.