5 Smart Money Invests $237.7K to Predict "The U.S. and Iran Permanent Peace Accord Will Be Reached by May 26, 2026"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 5 clever funds have placed a total of $237.7k on the question "Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 26, 2026?" with an average buy probability of 42.8%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 51.0%.

denizz has invested $51.5k, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $1.2M. Out of 859 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 575/859 (67%), with 183 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.151-$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $2.5k, representing a 20.9x multiple of this median for the current investment.
westminster has invested $51.6k, with the most relevant category being Geopolitics, resulting in a net profit of $174k. Out of 66 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 45/66 (68%), with 21 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $7.8k.
wan123 has invested $50.1k, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $954k. Out of 178 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 76/178 (43%), with 48 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $3.5k, representing a 14.1x multiple of this median for the current investment.
WordleAddict has invested $51.4k, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $379k. Out of 1417 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 626/1417 (44%), with 291 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $509, representing a 101.1x multiple of this median for the current investment.
mombil has invested $33.1k, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $498k. Out of 2191 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1424/2191 (65%), with 676 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $470, representing a 70.6x multiple of this median for the current investment.

Axios reported on May 23 that Trump has stated the agreement to end the US-Iran war will be finalized "soon," noting that final details are still being negotiated. Axios further mentioned that a US official familiar with the negotiations indicated the agreement is close to completion but there are still disagreements on some wording. The report highlighted that the agreement is aimed at ending the war, gradually opening the Strait of Hormuz, and initiating at least a 30-day more detailed negotiation, which includes the Iran nuclear program.

Reuters reported at 10:43 AM ET on May 23 that the US, Iran, and Pakistan as mediators have reported progress in the negotiations. Trump mentioned that a peace accord memorandum has been mostly agreed upon and that final details will be announced soon. The Pakistan military described the negotiations as having made "encouraging progress toward a final understanding," with two Pakistani sources involved in the talks stating that the proposed plan is "quite comprehensive," aiming to end the war. The Reuters report also suggested that the plan may progress in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and initiating a 30-day window for broader agreement talks.

Iran's side is no longer just denying. The Associated Press reported on May 23 that Iranian state media quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei as saying that the draft is a framework agreement, aiming to address the main issues needed to end the "imposed war" and other key issues that Iran deems important. The plan involves discussing details for the next 30 to 60 days to eventually reach a comprehensive agreement. CBS also reported on May 23 at 12:17 PM ET that the latest proposal includes reestablishing the flow through the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing some of Iran's overseas assets, and continuing subsequent negotiations.

Reuters later on the same day mentioned that Iran's Fars news agency stated early on May 24 that Trump's assertion of the agreement nearing finalization "does not match reality" and emphasized that even if an agreement is reached, Iran will still control the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Speaker of Parliament Kalibaf also noted that Iran will pursue its legitimate rights on the battlefield and diplomatically but cannot trust a "dishonest party"; and if the US renews the war, the consequences will be more severe. On the US side, Secretary of State Pompeo still emphasized that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons, the strait must be open without fees, and Iran must surrender highly enriched uranium.

Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile assessment, the trader is not betting on the actual outcome of events, but exhibits behaviors such as taking profits or stop-loss at a specific time after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xbc43a2f0deb85ba4ad316300762972089c911540
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
0xe25b9180f5687aa85bd94ee309bb72a464320f1b
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711

Total Investment: $237.7k
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