Glassnode: Bitcoin Retakes Realized Cap But Fails to Hold, On-Chain Metrics Indicate Consolidation or Continued for Months

BlockBeats News, May 21st, Glassnode announced that Bitcoin has reclaimed the true market mean price at $78,300, but has failed to sustainably hold above this level. Historical cycles indicate that a period of consolidation lasting from weeks to months may be needed before confirming a reliable bull market transition. The 30-day moving average of the SOPR ratio has risen from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that the demand is not enough to absorb the wave of profit-taking. This ratio needs to stay above 2 consistently to signal a true recovery in buyer strength.

The 30-day cost basis at $78,200 has transitioned from a support level to a resistance level, while the cost basis of the accumulation cluster formed between February and April ($71,400) is currently the most immediate support level in the current pullback.

The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks. The spot Cumulative Value Difference (CVD) remains overall negative, and Coinbase activity continues to lag. This suggests that despite occasional offshore speculative demand, spot participation from U.S. institutions remains relatively weak. The open interest of CME futures contracts has increased alongside the price, indicating an improving institutional participation in the derivatives market as the overall spot demand nears the upper end of the current range but still lacks decisiveness. The accumulation pace of U.S. spot ETFs has recently slowed, further indicating a shift towards futures-driven activity.

The implied volatility is recovering from low levels, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. The realized volatility continues to decline, expanding the volatility risk premium, making hedging costs relatively manageable. Option positioning remains defensive. Skewness indicators show a renewed need for downside protection, and the negative gamma area around $75,000 makes the spot price vulnerable to amplified hedging flows and intensified price swings.

BlockBeats Note: "True Market Mean Price" (TMMP) is a vital indicator in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, also known as "Active-Investor Price." Essentially, it reflects the average price of Bitcoin actively circulating in the market (i.e., coins that have been actively traded or transferred between investors), representing the price at which these coins were purchased.