Bitunix Analyst:Yields and Geopolitics Take Center Stage as Global Assets Begin Decoupling

BlockBeats News, May 20th: Markets are no longer focused on stagflation itself, but on whether risk assets can sustain elevated valuations now that global long-end yields are spiraling out of sync. The US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.7% while the 30-year has broken above 5.1%, prompting markets to reprice the risk of "the Fed potentially returning to a hiking cycle." Morgan Stanley and HSBC have both warned that Treasury yields have entered a danger zone capable of suppressing equity valuations—and with Japanese, British, and European long-end yields rising in parallel, the global cost of capital is now being repriced across the board.

The Middle East has briefly opened a negotiation window, but the market is not letting its guard down. Trump has signaled willingness to give Iran another two to three days for negotiations, while making clear that if talks fail, the US could strike again. The Strait of Hormuz has yet to return to normal operations; NATO has begun discussing a convoy framework for after early July, and India is planning to resend tankers into the Gulf—collectively signaling that the global energy supply chain is gradually entering a "semi-wartime state."

On the flow side, US equities are showing the first signs of strain. The S&P 500 has slipped for consecutive sessions while long-end real yields continue to rise—markets are now recalculating the valuation logic of AI and tech leaders. Deutsche Bank, however, argues that oil prices have not yet broken loose, economic data has not visibly weakened, and the Fed has not formally re-entered a hiking cycle—so for now markets remain in a "high volatility, not full collapse" phase.

In crypto, BTC continues to range-trade, though liquidity structure is visibly weakening. The liquidation heatmap shows concentrated short liquidity above $78,000 and heavy long liquidity accumulated between $75,500 and $76,000. With the market's core focus now on yields and global risk appetite, BTC is increasingly behaving as a global liquidity barometer rather than an independent asset. Should US Treasury yields continue to spiral, risk assets across the board could face synchronized deleveraging pressure.