1 new account deposited $6,200 to predict “Trump will announce the lifting of the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz before May 31st.”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has placed a $6.2k bet on "Will Trump announce the lifting of the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?" with an average buy probability of 19.4%. The current probability of "Yes" is 17.5%.

On the night of the 19th, U.S. Vice President Pence said at a White House briefing that the U.S. is willing to "reach an agreement" with Iran on the condition that Iran commits to not having nuclear weapons. He also mentioned that the U.S. is engaging in "good-faith negotiations" and he believes an agreement is possible. However, he also stated that if an agreement cannot be reached, the U.S. is still "locked and loaded, ready at any time."

On the same day, Trump said that he was just "an hour away" from deciding to strike Iran but then paused. This action may be related to a new peace proposal submitted through Pakistan by Tehran or the reluctance of Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to see a resumption of hostilities. Trump provided a new timeframe for a ceasefire, stating "two to three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or early next week."

Reuters reported today that oil prices fell as Trump reiterated that a war with Iran would end "very quickly." Brent crude dropped by 0.4% to $110.83, while WTI fell by 0.3% to $103.88.

Account:
0xa8b8db6d6b1af57434b64e10c0f19d833f1a05cf

Total Bet: $6.2k
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