2 new accounts deposit $9,000 to bet on "Iran will close its airspace before May 21st."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 new accounts have placed a $9.0k bet on "Will Iran close its airspace before May 21?" with an average buy-in probability of 14.5%. The current probability for "Yes" is 14.0%.

0xc312 received funds from 0x4413, and this on-chain address shares the same Binance deposit address 0xeA2b with another Polymarket account 0xbC8c. Account 0xbC8c, created on June 12, 2025, placed a $3.8k bet on Israel striking Iran within 24 hours, which occurred 22 hours later, resulting in a 2.7x profit. This was the account's only transaction.

Over the past 12 hours, the most crucial update is the U.S. signaling both negotiation progress and military readiness. Axios reported at 17:46 UTC on May 19 that despite announcing a pause in attacks, Trump convened a meeting with Vice President Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo, Special Envoy Hook, Defense Secretary Esper, Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley, CIA Director Ratcliffe, and others to discuss Iran's military options. Trump reportedly mentioned being only one hour away from giving the order and hinted at another strike on Iran if negotiations fail.

There are also de-escalation signals. Reuters reported on May 19 that Vice President Pence indicated significant progress in U.S.-Iran talks, with both sides in a "pretty good position." However, he also emphasized that if no agreement is reached, the U.S. could still resume military action.

Accounts:
0xc312a7b2d33376a070425b965a7aaa7f73f35e62
0xcc8e82773e67aa03994fbc252307c378e905d4bc

Total Investment: $9.0k
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