2 savvy investors put in $69,600 to predict "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazil presidential election"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 2 whales made bets on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" One whale bet $69.6k on "Yes," with an average buy-in probability of 44.1%. The current probability of "Yes" is 46%.

The whale named lava-lava bet $11.7k, and the most relevant category for this market is Politics, with a net profit of $762k. Out of 970 settled trades in this category, the whale has a win rate of 502/970 (52%), with 309 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was over $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.351-$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $2.6k.
ScottyNooo wagered $57.9k, and the most relevant category for this market is International Elections, with a net profit of $254k. Out of 173 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 60/173 (35%), with 7 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was over $0.95.

On the 19th, Reuters reported that AtlasIntel/Bloomberg's latest poll showed that if the 2026 presidential election advances to a second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula would win with 48.9% against 41.8%; in a survey by the same institution in April, Flávio had a slight lead of 47.8% against 47.5%.

On the same day, Reuters reported that Flávio Bolsonaro admitted to meeting with his former boss at Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, after he was arrested and released with an ankle monitor. Flávio's explanation was, "I did go see him, to put an end to this and tell him that if he had told me how serious things were earlier, I would have found other investors." This admission is highly detrimental to Flávio's election prospects, as the issue has escalated from a "recording scandal" to "how deep Flávio's involvement with the implicated banker really is."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader does not bet on whether the event will actually occur; instead, they exhibit behaviors such as taking profits or stop-losses at certain time points after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35

Total Investment: $69.6k
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