1 new account deposited $19,300 in "Will Iran Close Its Airspace by May 24th" before.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, a new account placed a $19.3k bet on "Will Iran close its airspace before May 24?", with an average buy-in probability of 26.8%. The current probability for "Yes" is 27.5%.

Axios reported on May 18 that a senior U.S. official believed Iran's latest proposal was still insufficient and indicated that if Iran does not adjust its position, the U.S. might continue negotiations through military strikes. The report also mentioned that Trump is expected to discuss restoring military options with his national security team around May 20.

Iran's public stance is "Talks without surrender." Al Jazeera reported on May 19 that Iranian President Raisi stated that dialogue does not mean surrender, and Iran would engage in talks with dignity, authority, and in a way that upholds national rights. EuroNews reported on May 18 that Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed Iran had expressed concerns to the U.S. through Pakistan mediators, advocating for sanction relief, release of frozen assets, and war reparations, while also indicating Iran is prepared for any scenario.

The Guardian reported on May 18 that Iran proposed or reiterated some negotiation conditions, including a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but these statements have not been independently verified; the same day's report also mentioned that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened to impose permit requirements on undersea internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press stated on May 19 that Iran still holds the key in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues, creating a "blockade and counter-blockade" dynamic that tightly links airspace, the strait, oil prices, and military actions.

Account:
0x1113c1a047a50ee91d0d31be85d77bdf149e9ba3.