30-Year Treasury Yield Nears Historic High, Global Bond Investors Struggle with 'Yield Surge' and Sell-Off Risks

BlockBeats News, May 19th. As the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose to around 5.14%, approaching a high not seen since 2007, the global bond market is experiencing a profound divergence. Some institutions believe that the current long bond valuation is attractive, but more investors are concerned that inflation, fiscal deficits, and the Middle East situation will further drive up yields.

Goldman Sachs believes that certain indicators of long-term US bonds have shown allocation value, but they advise caution; Barclays, on the other hand, warns that the 30-year US bond yield may rise above 5.5%; while BlackRock's research department suggests reducing holdings of developed country bonds, including US Treasuries.

Market analysis suggests that rising energy prices, the expanding US fiscal deficit, and strengthening inflation inertia are pushing up long-term bond term premiums, undermining the market's confidence in the "peak yield" theory. Meanwhile, there has been a shift in the structure of foreign buyers of US Treasuries, with hedge funds and financial center funds replacing traditional long-term official buyers, making the market more sensitive to price fluctuations.

Institutions are generally concerned that if the situation in the Middle East escalates further or if US inflation continues to exceed expectations, the long-term US bond yield may enter a new upward range, leading to further volatility in the global bond market.