The new account has deposited $2,000 into "Will Iran Close Its Airspace by May 24?" ongoing.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the newly reported account yesterday continued to bet $2,000 on "yes" for the question "Will Iran close its airspace before May 24?" The current probability of "yes" is 31%.

Due to one of the significant non-weather reasons triggering Iran's airspace closure being a geopolitical conflict, the market sentiment is closely tied to the military strike. The Associated Press reported on May 18 that Trump stated the U.S. had initially planned a "major" military strike against Iran on Tuesday but paused after requests from leaders in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who believed that "serious negotiations" with Iran were ongoing. Trump also mentioned that Gulf allies wanted the U.S. to wait another two to three days, and he had instructed the military to remain prepared to resume a large-scale strike at a moment's notice if a satisfactory agreement couldn't be reached.

On the same day, Al Jazeera reported that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that dialogue does not mean surrender, and Iran would not give up its legitimate rights. Following Trump's remarks, oil prices quickly declined, and the air defense system on Qeshm Island was briefly activated but the situation was contained. As of now, there have been no reports of Iran's civil aviation authority declaring a nationwide or major regional airspace closure.

Account:
0x3915bd94e985d73d634c403ec55f7013ae79faff

Total Bet: $38.8k
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