Analysis: Three Major Macroeconomic Risks Supersede Bitcoin Regulatory Good News

BlockBeats News, May 18th - Despite the smooth passage of the US "Clarity Act" by the Senate Banking Committee last week, which brings the most clear path to establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry, the current deteriorating macro environment is suppressing market risk appetite, and crypto assets are equally under pressure. Crypto analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that the market is currently facing three major risks:

Firstly, the volatility in the US bond market has significantly increased. The MOVE index, which measures US bond volatility, surged 14.7% last Friday to 79.87, hitting a new high since April 7th. As US bonds are the core collateral of the global financial system, rising yields and volatility usually suppress the performance of risk assets and trigger widespread deleveraging.

Secondly, the risk of yen depreciation continues to heat up. The USD/JPY rate has recently risen from 155 to near 159, approaching the key level of 160 where the Bank of Japan historically may intervene. The market is concerned that once the Bank of Japan intervenes and boosts the yen, it may trigger unwinding of "carry trades" funded by low-interest yen, leading to a global liquidity squeeze. QCP Capital stated that if the current large crowded yen carry trades are unwound in concentration, it could impact global risk assets.

Thirdly, international oil prices continue to rise. Both WTI and Brent crude oil have surpassed $100 per barrel. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that due to the Iran conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global commercial crude oil inventories are rapidly depleting, and the remaining inventory may only last for a few weeks. If oil prices continue to rise, it could rekindle global inflation and further tighten the financial environment.

Despite the improving regulatory environment, the current macro pressures—including bond market volatility, yen carry trade risks, and rising oil prices—have temporarily overshadowed the bullish sentiment in the crypto market, with "macro factors currently dominating." Furthermore, since 2026, cross-chain bridge attack incidents have been frequent, with hackers having successfully stolen approximately $328 million through 8 major bridge attacks, highlighting the ongoing prominent security issues in the industry.