QCP: 4 Billion IBIT Options Expiry Weakens Price Support, Macro Environment Turns Unfavorable

BlockBeats News, May 18th, QCP Capital posted on its official channel stating that after being suppressed near $80,000 for most of this month, Bitcoin fell below $78,000. Long-term Gamma held by market makers (especially IBIT options) had previously helped suppress volatility, but over $4 billion in IBIT options expired last Friday, weakening this support.

The macro background is becoming less friendly. The stock market is correcting, bond yields hit a cyclical high (U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.62%, 30-year at 5.14%), the USD/JPY exchange rate is in the 158 to 159 range, approaching the key level of 160—at this level, concerns about intervention risk and yen carry trade unwinding may rise.

Trade negotiations remain the main hope for market sentiment, but last week's U.S.-China summit did not provide much specific detail. With rising oil prices and a persistently high CPI, the market currently expects a 50% to 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed by January next year.

Until more concrete tariff or U.S.-Iran-related headlines appear, cryptocurrency may continue to maintain a volatile bottoming pattern. Front-end volatility briefly surged on the price drop but has since gradually subsided, and call option put writers may soon return, pinning the spot price around the current level.