Citrini Research Slams "Bottleneck Investors": AI Value Flow Increasingly Obscure, Blindly Betting on Hashpower Extremely Dangerous

According to Sentinel AI Monitoring, the independent research firm Citrini Research, which caused a stock market turmoil with its February release of the "AI Doomsday Report," today publicly criticized the recent emergence of "Bottleneck Investors": those who dare to invest without a clear vision of what the industry will look like once the computational bottleneck is overcome, acting like blind men riding blind horses.

Known for its expertise in extreme endgame scenarios, Citrini pointed out that the current AI industry is facing a severe polarization in technology roadmap. The market could either suffer from a decade-long memory shortage or witness a complete bypass of existing hardware bottlenecks due to a demand collapse that forces innovation at the foundational level. This extreme uncertainty is now spreading from infrastructure to the fundamental structure of the entire market.

The biggest suspense lies in where the massive profits will ultimately settle. In the current playing field, large labs like Anthropic have a real opportunity to dominate all aspects from foundational infrastructure to applications. However, an equally plausible scenario is that basic models become mere low-margin commodities, with the industry's core value shifting entirely to higher-level application implementers or even to entirely new ecosystem innovators yet to emerge.

In early 2023, avoiding endgame deduction and directly betting on infrastructure, a tactic once considered the safest option for "sell-the-shovel" individuals, was seen as prudent. However, Citrini emphasizes that the current situation has not seen a breakthrough but has instead become even more opaque. Faced with a complex dynamic game, those who abandon independent deduction of multipolar endgames and simply follow a linear "bottleneck" narrative will encounter significant investment risks.