4 smart money bet $11,800 on "No" for "Will Iran close its airspace by May 21st"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart contracts have placed a total of $11.8k on "Will Iran close its airspace by May 21?", with an average buy-in probability of 88.2%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 13.5%.

Donald Trump released a new visual deterrent signal on Truth Social: he first posted a warning to Iran saying "time is ticking, they better act fast, or they will have nothing left," followed by a map of the Middle East covered by the U.S. flag with a red arrow pointing towards Iran, but without further explanation. Consequently, in the past two days, some TikTok and other platform influencers have started hyping up the possibility of "Iran potentially closing its airspace."

Today, AP reported that the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE was attacked by drones and caught fire, with the UAE calling it an "unjustified terrorist attack," but no casualties or radiation leaks were reported. Both the U.S. and Iran have sent signals indicating a possible return to hostilities. This suggests that the risk in the Middle East airspace is indeed increasing, but today's actual event involved drones in the Gulf and nuclear facility security, not directly related to a comprehensive Iranian airspace closure.

Axios reported today that Trump is expected to convene a high-level national security team in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options against Iran. Trump also stated that if Iran does not present a better plan, the U.S. will "hit Iran harder than ever before." However, based on current public news, Trump seems to be mainly applying maximum pressure tactics in the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may have set stop-loss or take-profit limits after opening their positions.

Accounts:
0x09a5d3b75f908d780f2070ac270eabd6cf83caaa;
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee;
0x836ffd95ef3cf3c7987612279b2152b11ce6906e;
0x69ea0d77ef34f1acb03aaed901df7620fc4215cd.