3 accounts voted a total of $87,900 on "Will Iran Close Its Airspace by May 31?" and the outcome was "No."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have invested $87.9 thousand in the question "Will Iran close its airspace by May 31st?", with an average buying probability of 65.3%, and the current probability of "Yes" at 37.5%.

0xbf93328f has invested $82.7 thousand, and is most active in the US-Iran related category, with a net profit of $26.1 thousand. Out of 8 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 7/8 (88%), with 6 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of their historical investments is $5,000, making this investment 16.5 times that median.
0xe472ce6b has invested $2,100 and is most active in the Iran-related category, with a net profit of $20.5 thousand. Out of 154 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 119/154 (77%), with 11 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), the median of their historical investments is $2,100.
0xd67ba35a has invested $3,200. With 889 settled trades, they have a total profit of $59.5 thousand. This trade is 16.9 times their historical median trade.

This event was established on May 5th. At the end of February, US actions against Iran led to a significant closure of Iranian airspace; on May 1st, Tehran airport just resumed commercial flights; on May 4th, incidents involving drones, missiles, commercial ships, and oil ports in the Hormuz Strait and UAE direction reignited concerns in the market about Iran potentially initiating a large-scale airspace closure once again.

OPSGROUP, an industry cooperation website monitoring flight risks, has indicated that the latest assessment of Iran's operations is "Tehran FIR has partially reopened; the eastern region is open for overflights above FL285 following strict procedures, while the western region remains closed for overflights; Tehran airport has resumed some flights, but most international operators are still avoiding this airspace." According to the event's rules, a "significant closure" must involve a widespread shutdown, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights overflying, arriving at, or departing from Iranian airspace, or affecting a major Iranian airspace sector. "Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures do not meet the criteria."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on whether the event will actually occur, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behaviors after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xbf93328f8b69273453228a82c913207731822fd7;
0xe472ce6be1fb4673d6155de37e414ead8bace7eb;
0xd67ba35aef659c872377a5ac2becb7ada7f85780.