The probability of "Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates act as the lead underwriter for SpaceX's IPO?" has increased from 30% to 50.8%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, half an hour ago, the probability of "Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates act as the lead underwriter for SpaceX's IPO?" increased from 30% to 50.8%.

Reuters previously reported that SpaceX is preparing for a mega IPO codenamed "Project V" with a possible scale of up to $75 billion, a valuation of around $1.75 trillion, and has organized at least 21 banks to participate. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup were reported to be in the core book-building team. If the final filing positions Goldman Sachs at the very front or describes Goldman Sachs as the lead arranger, Goldman Sachs would meet the settlement criteria of this market.

On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, which has always been the highest probability option in this transaction event, has long been seen as a key Musk capital markets relationship bank. Senior banker Michael Grimes has a deep relationship with Musk, having been involved in Tesla's IPO and several major tech deals. Reports from The Wall Street Journal also emphasize that Grimes' return to Morgan Stanley is highly relevant to SpaceX's IPO role. For projects related to Musk, relationships and historical trust are often more crucial than a bank's individual underwriting capabilities, which still support Morgan Stanley.
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