The Four Smart Money bet $151,300 on "Yes" for "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money have invested $151.3k in the question "Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?" with an average buy-in probability of 20.4%. The current probability for "Yes" is 16.5%.

0xfd2b1174 has invested $39.3k, with the most relevant category being Geopolitics, accumulating a net profit of $445k; the win rate for its 101 settled transactions in this category is 56/101 (55%), with 28 of those trades having a buy price below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k, making this investment 32.2 times the median.

wan123 has invested $71.3k, with the most relevant category being Politics, accumulating a net profit of $881k. The win rate for its 110 settled transactions in this category is 43/110 (39%), with 29 of those trades having a buy price below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $3.0k, making this investment 23.6 times the median.

flipadelphia has invested $4.6k, with the most relevant category being Politics, earning a sector net profit of $301k. The win rate for its 962 settled transactions in this category is 836/962 (87%), with 41 of those trades having a buy price below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $502.

aenews2 has invested $36k, with the most relevant category being Politics, earning a sector net profit of $4.3 million. The win rate for its 1693 settled transactions in this category is 906/1693 (54%), with 201 of those trades having a buy price below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.201-$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $1.3k, making this investment 26.8 times the median.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behaviors after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1

Total Investment: $151.3k
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