OpenAI has set a $38 billion cap on the revenue share with Microsoft, saving $97 billion in the long run but putting pressure on its short-term cash flow.

According to Dynamic Beating's monitoring, two weeks ago OpenAI officially announced a modification to its partnership agreement with Microsoft. The Information exclusively revealed hidden financial details: the total amount of revenue share OpenAI will pay to Microsoft is capped at $38 billion. Based on the current revenue growth rate, OpenAI is expected to hit this cap by 2028. Compared to the previous uncapped "20% revenue share" scheme, the new agreement will save OpenAI approximately $97 billion in the long run.

The cost of long-term cost savings is short-term cash flow pressure. The new agreement eliminates OpenAI's previous privilege of delaying part of the revenue share payment until 2032. Based on this year's expected revenue of $30 billion, OpenAI must pay Microsoft approximately $6 billion in full this year, which is higher than the previous estimate of nearly $4 billion. As a result, OpenAI's projected cash burn for this year and the next has been raised to approximately $27 billion and $63 billion, respectively.

Microsoft has given up hundreds of billions of dollars in potential upside to obtain certainty in mitigating the "AGI risk." Under the original agreement, once OpenAI announces the achievement of AGI, Microsoft's commercialization rights would be severed. The new agreement clearly states that regardless of when AGI arrives, Microsoft can continue to receive a proportional revenue share until 2030 and retain the right to resell OpenAI's technology until 2032.