3 Smart Money Invests $55.7K to Predict “US-Iran Will Not Hold Diplomatic Summit Before June 2026”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 big whales have invested $55.7k in the "Will the US and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting before June 2026?" market, with an average buy probability of 65.5%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 29.5%.

denizz has invested $32.1k, with the top-performing category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $1.3M. Out of 836 settled trades in this category, denizz has a win rate of 567/836 (68%), with 179 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost price range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $5.6k.
0xecaa8806 has invested $15.6k, with the top-performing category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $306k. Out of 527 settled trades in this category, 0xecaa8806 has a win rate of 308/527 (58%), with 238 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost price range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $5.1k.
0xd44e974a has invested $8.0k, with the top-performing category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $225k. Out of 595 settled trades in this category, 0xd44e974a has a win rate of 419/595 (70%), with 245 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost price range ($0.401-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $610, and this investment is 13.1 times that median amount.

Iran's latest ceasefire proposal emphasizes a comprehensive end to the war first, and requests the US to suspend sanctions on Iran's oil sales through OFAC within 30 days, while also ending the maritime blockade on Iran. The proposal also mentions that after the US makes specific commitments, Iran will oversee the Strait of Hormuz.

On the 11th, after receiving Iran's latest ceasefire proposal transmitted through Pakistan, Trump promptly rejected Iran's response to the US peace plan, calling it "completely unacceptable."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening their position.

Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2

Total Investment: $55.7k
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