4 Smart Money Invests $67,700 to Predict “Strategy Will Not Sell Bitcoin This Month”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money have invested $67.7k in the question "Will Strategy sell Bitcoin this month?", with an average buying probability of 68.8% and the current probability of "Yes" at 35.0%.

0x184e98eb has invested $39.8k, with the most relevant category being cryptocurrency in this market, with a net profit of $30.3k. It has a win rate of 12/12 (100%) in 12 settled transactions in this category, with 0 transactions where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was more than $0.95.
0x398dafc4 has invested $9.4k, with the most relevant category being finance in this market, with a net profit of $43.5k. It has a win rate of 6/8 (75%) in 8 settled transactions in this category, with 2 transactions where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was more than $0.95.
Parz1vaI has invested $7.9k, with the most relevant category being cryptocurrency in this market, with a net profit of $67.8k. It has a win rate of 89/112 (79%) in 112 settled transactions in this category, with 25 transactions where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was more than $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $2.3k.
0x2e4d05be has invested $10.6k, with the most relevant category being finance in this market, with a net profit of $41.9k. It has a win rate of 29/30 (97%) in 30 settled transactions in this category, with 5 transactions where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was more than $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $1.4k.

On May 10th, Saylor posted on X, "Back to work. BTC," which several crypto media outlets interpreted as Strategy possibly resuming Bitcoin purchases post-earnings report; KuCoin cited reports stating that Saylor's such posts have commonly appeared before a new round of disclosure, with the last known purchase being 3,273 BTC on April 27th.

Additionally, Saylor's subsequent references to "selling Bitcoin" lean more towards capital management rather than transitioning from a net accumulation to net reduction. Reports indicate that in later interviews, Saylor stated a more accurate description would be "will never be a Bitcoin net seller" and mentioned that if Strategy sells 1 BTC, they might buy 10 to 20 more BTC. This statement does not rule out future sales but shifts the market focus from "will they sell" to "whether they will actually sell by the end of this month".

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, as they may take profits or stop losses at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x184e98eb1d39dfb9e7750e860512a9adbcbecf96
0x398dafc40ced1757f33a263d809f18666ba5c7c3
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x2e4d05beafd81a6e85bc0c6a94820d61ef34f703

Total Investment: $67.7k
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