Five Addresses Pool $356,000 to Bet That the U.S. Will Acquire Iranian Enriched Uranium by May 31

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a total of 5 smart money addresses have collectively invested approximately $357.6k, betting on "The U.S. will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by May 31," with an average buy-in probability of 16.4%. The current market probability for "Yes" has dropped to 5.5%.

Among them, TheQuietRisk, an address with a net profit of about $1.1 million in the Geopolitical category, has invested $228k, holding the current largest position; RememberAmalek, an address with a net profit of about $683k in the Political category, has invested $50.6k; wan123, an address with a net profit of about $436k in the Political category, has invested $52.9k; 0x1e1f1741, an address with a net profit of about $95k in the Political category, has invested $16.5k; 0xc84f7e76, an address with a net profit of about $116k in the Political category, has invested $9.7k.

PolyBeats data shows that many addresses have bet sizes significantly higher than their historical similar position levels. In this instance, RememberAmalek has bet 361 times more than its historical median position in the same range, 0x1e1f1741 about 156 times, and 0xc84f7e76 about 108 times.

Per Polymarket rules, the settlement condition for this market is: the U.S. government or military must officially announce within this month that they have successfully obtained any amount of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran, whether through an agreement handover, third-country transfer, or military seizure.

Recently, several media outlets have been sending out related signals. Axios previously reported that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a "Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)" framework, with Iran potentially agreeing to move highly enriched uranium out of the country, one proposed scenario being a transfer to the U.S. Reuters reported on May 7 that the U.S. hopes Iran will relinquish its uranium enrichment rights and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, while Iran is seeking recognition of its enrichment rights.

Note: Based on past transaction patterns, it is assessed that this trader is not betting on the actual event occurring and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
0x1e1f17412069c0736adfaadf8ee7f46e5612c855
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d

Total Investment: $357.6k
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