5 Smart Money Invests $54,000 to Predict “Iranian Leadership Will Not Change Before 2027”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money have invested $54.0k in the question "Will there be a change in the Iranian leadership by 2027?", predicting "No", with an average buying probability of 60.8% and the current "Yes" probability at 32.5%.

0x6d9fc316 has invested $6600, with the best-performing category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $281k. Out of 691 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 430/691 (62%), with 204 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of historical investment amount is $3000.

0x56ebe2a8 has invested $22.5k, with the best-performing category in this market being Iran, with a net profit of $52.5k. Out of 62 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 32/62 (52%), with 24 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median of historical investment amount is $1200, making this investment 19.4 times the median.

Mr-Krabs has invested $3800, with the best-performing category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $55k. Out of 317 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 248/317 (78%), with 54 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of historical investment amount is $3200.

armageddonrewardsbilly has invested $3300, with the best-performing category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $859k. Out of 1324 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 745/1324 (56%), with 94 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of historical investment amount is $9500.

denizz has invested $17.7k, with the best-performing category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $1.2 million. Out of 832 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 566/832 (68%), with 179 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median of historical investment amount is $3800.

On the 7th day, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that he had held constructive talks with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, countering the U.S. narrative of a "rift in the Iranian leadership." This marks Pezeshkian's first opportunity to meet with Mojtaba two months after he was selected as the Supreme Leader. Despite internal frictions, Iran is publicly shaping its external image as "the Supreme Leader remains in power, and the President and the military can still cooperate."

Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, it is assessed that the trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behaviors after opening positions at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x56ebe2a8eb1b9bccfd3059f981f9c987e45e076a
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73

Total Investment: $54.0k
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