Opinion: Bitcoin Volatility Regresses, Options Market Indicates Short-Term Sentiment Recovery but Tilts Towards Range-Bound Consolidation

BlockBeats News, May 8th, glassnode released a report stating that Bitcoin had previously broken through a key resistance level to rise to the $82,000 to $83,000 range, breaking out of the narrow trading range of the past few weeks and bringing back market volatility. Option data shows that short-term implied volatility has rebounded significantly, with the 1-week implied volatility rising by about 6 volatility points from its low, while the long-term term structure changes are relatively moderate, indicating that short-term trading demand is rapidly recovering.

In terms of sentiment and positioning, the 25 delta skew (a measure of whether the market is more afraid of a drop or more eager for a rise in options sentiment) continues to converge towards neutrality, with the short end even rebounding to about a 5% put premium after briefly touching balance, but overall showing that downside hedging demand is weakening. At the same time, the skew indicator shows differentiation: the short term is still biased towards downside, but the longer-term structure is gradually shifting towards upside, indicating that the market is beginning to reprice its upward expectations.

On the structural side, the speed of implied volatility's rise has surpassed that of realized volatility, causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to turn positive again; meanwhile, there is a concentration of around $2 billion in "short gamma" near $82,000, which could amplify price fluctuations. Option flow has also shifted towards profit-taking, with bullish option selling accounting for 81% of the total in the past 24 hours, overall indicating that the market is more inclined to consolidation rather than a deep retracement.