3 Smart Money Invests $15.7K to Predict "US-Iran Will Reach Permanent Peace Agreement Before July"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 savvy investors have placed bets on "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before July?" with $15.7k total invested in the "Yes" outcome. The average buy-in probability is 49.2%, and the current probability for "Yes" is 53.5%.

Tenebrus7 invested $9.0k, with the top relevant category being Politics, netting $147k in that category. Out of 2441 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 1776/2441 (73%), with 327 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), their historical median investment amount is $398, and this investment is 22.6 times that median.
GollumGekko invested $4.0k, with the top relevant category being Politics, netting $94.1k in that category. Out of 1602 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 1215/1602 (76%), with 112 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), their historical median investment amount is $337, and this investment is 11.9 times that median.
AlfredTheShiller invested $2.7k, with the top relevant category being Politics, netting $60.5k in that category. Out of 559 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 344/559 (62%), with 152 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), their historical median investment amount is $221, and this investment is 12.2 times that median.

On the 7th day, Washington and Tehran have shifted from the originally envisaged "comprehensive peace agreement" to a more limited interim arrangement, first formally ending the war, addressing the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and then opening a 30-day window for a larger agreement. If both parties agree on a preliminary document, detailed talks will begin for 30 days, with the full agreement involving ending mutual blockades in the Strait, lifting US sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian funds, and imposing restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.

On the 7th day, the US and Iran engaged in an exchange of fire near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the most serious clash in a month-long ceasefire. However, at the time of the conflict, the US was still awaiting Iran's response to the peace proposal, with Trump also stating, "We are negotiating with Iran," and described the agreement as "something that could happen any day, may not happen at all."

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
0xcd6be6693e2bc11150d397caa9e6f7c6744b68f5

Total Investment: $15.7k
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