3 accounts voted $83.9 thousand on "Will MicroStrategy Sell Any Bitcoin Before June 30, 2026," answering "No."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have placed a total of $83.9k in the market "Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?" with an average buy-in probability of 84.0%. The current probability of "Yes" is 28.8%.

Account 0xb48ef6de has invested $53.7k, with the top-performing category being Finance, with a net profit of $77.1k. Out of 12 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 10/12 (83%), including 2 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.951-$1), the median historical investment amount is $21k.
Account AllByMyseIf has invested $1100, with the top-performing category being Finance, with a net profit of $6200. Out of 19 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 16/19 (84%), including 2 trades with a buy price below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.801-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $9800.
Account 0x830e68e2 has invested $29k. With 68 settled trades, the total profit is $17.7k. This trade is 31.3 times the median of its historical trades.

On May 5, Strategy released its Q1 2026 earnings report, showing a net loss of $12.54 billion, mainly from unrealized losses due to Bitcoin's fair value change. An SEC 8-K filing submitted on May 4 further revealed that during the week of April 27 to May 3, Strategy sold 492,210 shares of MSTR common stock, resulting in a net gain of $82 million. No Bitcoin was purchased during this period, and the holding as of May 3 remains at 818,334 coins.

This morning, the market's "Yes" probability surged from 3% to nearly 40%. During the earnings call, Saylor mentioned the company "may sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend," and management also noted that if selling Bitcoin is beneficial to the per-bitcoin metric, the company will consider doing so in the future. CEO Phong Le also stated that the company will no longer simply say "Never Sell Bitcoin" but will sell when it benefits the company.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xb48ef6deecd526c0974c35e1f7b5c3bbd12fa144
0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804
0x830e68e26b3b454183b704901273a5ccda2a7099

Total Investment: $83.9k
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